Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +2.2% year-over-year sales improvement in March 2013 versus LY. This represents a deceleration versus the +3.5% growth rate in February 2013.

The most compelling category specific storylines in March 2013 were:

• March 2013 represented the 41st consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.

  Yet, it’s important to note that our favorite “mall” measuring stick reported its weakest year-over-year sales growth in March 2013 since January 2010.

• Most categories reported a weaker top-line growth in March 2013 than February 2013. Bucking this particular trend with stronger year-over-year sales growth in March 2013 than February 2013 were Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores, Clothing & Clothing Accessory Stores, and Food Services & Drinking Places.
• Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores reported a slight acceleration in March 2013 versus February 2013.

  Yet, it’s important to note that the comparison to last year in March 2013 was much easier to anniversary than February 2013 (i.e. the 2-year growth rate materially declined in March 2013 versus February 2013).

  The category’s 2-year growth rate has now declined from +15.1% in January 2013 to +8.6% in March 2013.

• After reporting relatively strong top-line results in calendar Q4 2012 and slightly positive results in Jan/Feb 2013, sales Electronics & Appliance Stores fell off the cliff in March 2013 (-3.2% versus LY).

  The problem is that the category lapped materially easier top-line compares in calendar Q1 2013 than calendar Q4 2012.

• Non-Store Retailers continue to report robust top-line growth. In Q1 2013 (January – March), the category grew +14.5% versus LY, an acceleration versus +11.0% in Q4 2012 (October – December). Very few categories accelerated in Q1 2013 versus Q3 2012.
• Food Service & Drinking Places continued its impressive run with its 34th consecutive month in which year-over-year sales growth exceeded +3.0%.
• Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers was one of the few categories to report an acceleration of year-over-year growth in Q1 2013 versus Q4 2012 (Health & Personal Care Stores, Electronics & Appliance Stores and Non-Store Retailers are the others).

  In addition, the category reported +46.5% growth in March 2013 versus March 2009 (4-year).

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 March 2013

+5.4% (+10.7% 2-year) +4.8% (+10.0% 2-year) +5.2% (+10.6% 2-year) +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year) +4.3% (+10.7% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.1% 2-year) +4.1% (+11.4% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +4.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +2.6% (+9.9% 2-year) +3.0% (+9.3% 2-year) +4.1% (+9.6% 2-year) +3.3% (+8.8% 2-year) +3.5% (+8.4% 2-year) +2.2% (+7.6% 2-year)

Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +3.9% year-over-year sales improvement in February 2013 versus LY. This represents a deceleration versus the +3.6% growth rate in January 2013.

The most compelling category specific storylines in January 2013 were:

• February 2013 represented the 40th consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.
• Most discretionary categories reported a weaker top-line growth in February 2013 than January 2013. Conversely, most non-discretionary categories reported a stronger top-line growth rate in February 2013 than January 2013.
• Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores reported its lowest year-over-year growth rate since August 2011. In addition, February 2013′s year-over-year growth rate represented a sharp deceleration versus January 2013 (+1.6% year-over-year growth in February 2013 versus +4.2% in January 2013).

  In addition, the category reported the largest sequential drop in February 2013 versus January 2013.

• After reporting relatively strong top-line results in calendar Q4 2012, Electronics & Appliance Stores have reported slightly positive year-over-year sales growth thsu far in calendar 2013. The problem is that the category is lapping materially easier top-line compares in calendar Q1 2013 than calendar Q4 2012.
• Non-Store Retailers continue to report robust top-line growth. In Q1 2013 QTD (i.e. January/February), the category grew +15.9% versus LY, an acceleration versus +11.0% in Q4 2012 (October – December).
• In December 2012, the Sporting Goods-Hobby-Book & Music Stores category reported its strongest monthly year-over-year top-line growth rate (+11.1% in December 2012 versus LY) since AT LEAST 1998 (we’ve only tracked the data since 1999).

  But, the category has seen a dramatic deceleration over the past two months (January 2013 +8.9% and February 2013 +3.9%).

• Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers was one of the few categories to report an accelerating 2-year top-line growth rate in February 2013 versus January 2013.

  This fact is especially noteworthy since the category is lapping strong year-over-year sales growth in February 2012 & March 2012 (material weather benefit).

• Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers was the only category to report an acceleration of sequential year-over-year growth in both January 2013 and February 2013.

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013

+5.4% (+10.7% 2-year) +4.9% (+10.1% 2-year) +5.0% (+10.3% 2-year) +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year) +4.3% (+10.7% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.1% 2-year) +4.1% (+11.4% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +4.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +2.6% (+9.9% 2-year) +3.0% (+9.3% 2-year) +4.1% (+9.6% 2-year) +3.6% (+9.1% 2-year) +3.9% (+8.9% 2-year)

Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +3.8% year-over-year sales improvement in January 2013 versus LY. This represents a deceleration versus the +4.3% growth rate in December 2012.

The most compelling category specific storylines in January 2013 were:

• January 2013 represented the 39th consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.
• Most major categories reported a weaker top-line growth in January 2013 than December 2012.

  Bucking that trend (i.e. stronger growth in January 2013 than December 2012) were the following categories: General Merchandise: Department Stores & Discount Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers, and Non-Store Retailers.

• The recent dramatic sales growth deceleration in the Health & Personal Care Stores category continued in January 2013. In calender Q4 2012, the category reported its first year-over-year sales decline since AT LEAST 1998.
• What’s going on at the Discount Stores? If you subtract General Merchandise: Department Stores from General Merchandise: Department Stores & Discount Stores… you’ll derive a -1.1% year-over-year decline in January 2013 versus LY for the implied Discount Stores sub-segment.

  While this compares favorably to a -1.8% year-over-year decline in December 2012, the result represents the 6th consecutive month in which the metric declined versus the prior year. Again, not good news for the discount sector.

• Non-Store Retailers continue to report robust top-line growth. In January 2013, the category grew +15.7% versus LY, an acceleration versus +13.6% in December 2012 and the strongest growth for the category since September 2012.
• The Sporting Goods-Hobby-Book & Music Stores category followed-up on its strongest monthly year-over-year top-line growth rate (+11.0% in December 2012 versus LY) since AT LEAST 1998 (we’ve only tracked the data since 1999) with an impressive +7.0% growth rate in January 2013 (+13.1% 2-year growth rate).
• Still want to believe in a “housing rebound” helping housing-focused retailers. Think again.

  Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers reported decelerating year-over-year sales growth in each of Q2 2012, Q3 2012, and Q4 2012. In January 2013, the category reported a decelerating growth rate relative to December 2012 and will now lap February/March 2012′s impressive sales growth (material weather benefit).

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013

+5.1% (+10.4% 2-year) +5.3% (+10.5% 2-year) +5.0% (+10.3% 2-year) +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year) +4.3% (+10.7% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.1% 2-year) +4.1% (+11.4% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +4.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +2.6% (+9.9% 2-year) +3.0% (+9.3% 2-year) +4.3% (+9.8% 2-year) +3.8% (+9.0% 2-year)

Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +4.0% year-over-year sales improvement in December 2012 versus LY. This represents an acceleration versus the +2.9% growth rate in November 2012.

The most compelling category specific storylines in December 2012 were:

• December 2012 represented the 38th consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.
• Most major categories reported a weaker 2-year year-over-year growth rate in Q4 2012 versus Q3 2012.

  Bucking that trend (i.e. stronger growth in calendar Q4 than calendar Q3) were the following categories: Sporting Goods-Hobby-Book & Music Stores, Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores, Food Services & Drinking Places, and Gasoline Stations.

• This year’s dramatic sales growth deceleration in the Health & Personal Care Stores category continued in December 2012. In calendar Q4 2012, the category reported its first year-over-year sales decline since AT LEAST 1998.
• What’s going on at the Discount Stores? If you subtract General Merchandise: Department Stores from General Merchandise: Department Stores & Discount Stores… you’ll derive a -2.1% year-over-year decline in December 2012 versus LY for the implied Discount Stores sub-segment.

  This compares to a -2.5% year-over-year decline in November 2012 and is the 5th consecutive month of declines versus the prior year. Not good news for the discount sector.

• While Non-Store Retailers continue to report robust top-line growth, it’s worth noting that the category’s year-over-year growth rate has decelerated to +10.6% in calendar Q4 2012 versus +13.2% in calendar Q3 2012.
• Electronics & Appliance Stores reported the category’s worst quarterly year-over-year sales decline in Q4 2012 since Q1 2010 (-2.4% in Q4 2012 vs. LY)
• Not only did Sporting Goods-Hobby-Book & Music Stores report stronger year-over-year sales growth in calendar Q4 2012 than calendar Q3 2012, but the category reported its strongest monthly year-over-year top-line growth rate (+(.1% in December 2012 versus LY) since AT LEAST 1998 (we’ve only tracked the data since 1999).
• Still want to believe in a “housing rebound” helping housing-focused retailers. Think again. Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers reported decelerating year-over-year sales growth in each of Q2 2012, Q3 2012, and Q4 2012. Now the category will begin to lap Q1 2012′s impressive sales growth (material weather benefit).

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012

+5.4% (+10.7% 2-year) +5.3% (+10.5% 2-year) +5.0% (+10.3% 2-year) +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year) +4.3% (+10.7% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.1% 2-year) +4.1% (+11.4% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +4.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +2.6% (+9.9% 2-year) +2.9% (+9.1% 2-year) +4.0% (+9.5% 2-year)

Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +3.1% year-over-year sales improvement in November 2012 versus LY. This represents an acceleration versus the +2.7% growth rate in October 2012.

The most compelling category specific storylines in November 2012 were:

• November 2012 represented the 37th consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.
• Most major categories reported a weaker 2-year year-over-year growth rate in November 2012 versus October 2012.

  Bucking that trend (i.e. stronger 2-year growth in November 2012 versus October 2012) were the following categories: Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores, Electronics & Appliance Stores, Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers, Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers and Non-Store Retailers.

• Most major categories reported a weaker growth rate in QTD Q4 2012 versus Q3 2012.

  Bucking that trend (i.e. stronger growth thus far in Q4 2012 versus Q3 2012) are Clothing & Clothing Accessory Stores, Sporting Goods-Hobby-Book & Music Stores, Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers, Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores, and Gasoline Stations.

• This year’s dramatic sales growth deceleration in the Health & Personal Care Stores category continued in November 2012. In each month from May 2012 through November 2012, the category’s monthly year-over-year growth rates were the lowest since AT LEAST 1998. Year-over-year sales for the category have declined thus far in Q4 2012.
• What’s going on at the Discount Stores? If you subtract General Merchandise: Department Stores from General Merchandise: Department Stores & Discount Stores… you’ll derive a -2.5% year-over-year decline in November 2012 versus LY for the implied Discount Stores sub-segment.

  This compares to a -0.9% year-over-year decline in October 2012 and a -1.1% decline in September 2012.

• While Non-Store Retailers continue to report robust top-line growth, it’s worth noting that the category’s year-over-year growth rate has decelerated to the +HSD range thus far in Q4 2012 (+9.6% in QTD Q4 2012 vs. LY). This represents a dramatic growth rate deceleration in Q4 2012 versus Q3 2012.
• Electronics & Appliance Stores are poised to report the category’s worst quarterly year-over-year sales decline in Q4 2012 since Q1 2010 (-3.5% thus far in Q4 2012 vs. LY).

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012

+5.4% (+10.7% 2-year) +5.3% (+10.5% 2-year) +5.0% (+10.3% 2-year) +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year) +4.3% (+10.7% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.1% 2-year) +4.1% (+11.4% 2-year) +3.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +4.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +2.7% (+10.0% 2-year) +3.1% (+9.3% 2-year)