Old Navy (GPS – $17.65) continues to report disappointing comp store sales numbers versus an incredibly low bar.

The below table suggests that the chain’s modest ‘success’ over the prior four quarters may have been simply a function of easy comparisons and less a function of a long-term trend.

The Old Navy North American division reported 20 consecutive quarters of comp store sales declines between Q3 2004 and Q2 2009.  Therefore, the current quarter represents the ‘end’ of easy compares and the -2% comp store sales result in August 2010 has the potential to be a permanent return to negative/dismal comp store sales.     

Old Navy Quarterly Comp Sales Run Rates

Retailers are proactively reaching out to their customers and target audience via social media, ranging from Facebook and Twitter pages to blogs and online communities.  It is fast becoming the most effective approach to boost brand awareness, understand their customers, get feedback, as well as direct traffic to a company’s web site.

We like to track the Facebook activities and monthly fan base growth for the retail sector.  Click here to see our compilation of monthly Facebook ‘fan’ numbers.

It is worth noting that out of the 70 retail brands covered in this survey, New York & Co (NWY – $2.01) was the largest percentage gainer of ‘fans’ in August 2010 versus July 2010 with a +88.4% gain.  Amazingly, Kohl’s (KSS – $48.22) was next at +66.2% growth in August 2010 versus July 2010. 

Conversely, Sears (SHLD – $64.42) and Ugg Boots (DECK – $45.59) delivered dismal +0.3% ‘fan’ growth in August 2010 versus July 2010.  Limited Too (DBRN – $21.81), Pizza Hut (YUM – $42.44), and Best Buy (BBY – $32.43) were not much better at +0.4%, +0.6%, and +1.2%, respectively. 

Starbucks (SBUX – $23.70) continues to lead the way by a wide margin with the largest number of ‘fans’ with 13 million (the chain even added an impressive gain of 1.6 million new ‘fans’ in August 2010 versus a month earlier).
 
Facebook Fan Base Highest Percent Growth – August 2010 vs. July 2010

Facebook Fan Base Lowest Percent Growth – August 2010 vs. July 2010

In late-May, we published a research note for our clients that highlighted 14 retailers that we forecasted had upside/downside EPS in 2H 2010 versus consensus sell-side estimates.  Here are the final results for the 3-month period (click here):

Our 5 long ideas were down -7.2% versus a decline of -8.5% for the RLX index.

Our 9 short ideas were down -19.9% versus a decline of -8.5% for the RLX index. 

We weighted the picks by market cap to preclude a micro-cap selection skewing the results.

On Monday, we again published a report that identified 23 retailers that have material EPS upside/downside in 2H 2010.  Approximately half of the 23 companies are on our Honorable Mention list which indicates less conviction. 

The full list includes the following companies (alphabetical order):

Aeropostale (ARO – $22.79)
Amazon (AMZN – $126.64)
Ann Taylor (ANN – $15.43)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY – $37.00)
Chico’s (CHS – $8.79)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG – $153.03)
Citi Trends (CTRN – $24.21)
Coldwater Creek (CWTR – $4.69)
The Gap (GPS – $17.03)
Hibbett Sports (HIBB – $23.71)
J. Crew Group (JCG – $31.04)
Kohl’s (KSS – $47.21)
Macy’s (M – $19.60)
NetFlix (NFLX – $126.10)
Nike (NKE – $70.94)
Payless ShoeSource (PSS – $14.09)
Ross Stores (ROST – $50.95)
TJX Companies (TJX – $41.13)
Talbots (TLB – $10.70)
Urban Outfitters (URBN – $31.05)
VF Corp (VFC – $73.88)
Volcom (VLCM – $16.06)
Zumiez (ZUMZ – $15.67) 

In 4-6 weeks, we’ll provide the full list again and show you which companies were/are longs and shorts for the next 3 months.  We’ll also highlight which companies made the official list or were simply an honorable mention selection. 

Only in America!  Where else can you report a +5% comp store sales result in Q2 2010 versus declines of -30% in Q2 2009, -4% in Q2 2008, and -2% in Q2 2007 and have sell-side analysts congratulating you on a great quarter?

The fact is that Mr. Jefferies has run ANF into the ground over the past 5 years.  He’s analogous to a head football coach today with a wishbone offense in an age when spread offenses are all the rage.  He did a remarkable job 10-15 years ago building a chain that siphoned sales away from the 800-lb gorilla, The Gap (GPS – $18.02).  He should be commended for providing a blueprint for how others could build aspirational brands with a focus on “affordable luxury” before anyone had even coined the term.

But, Mr. Jefferies running ANF today is like giving the keys of the car to your 85-year-old grandpa… you just don’t do it.  He’s the wrong person to run ANF at a time when Forever 21 has permanently changed the rules of the game.

Was it a great quarter?  You be the judge:

• The company’s 3-year comp store sales run rate of approximately -30% is far worse than AEO (-20%), ARO (+26%), The Gap (-20%), JCG (+12%), and URBN (+18%).  

• The company’s +5% comp store sales had the benefit of a material tailwind in Q2 2010… dramatically increased inventory levels versus the prior year.  It’s probable that the lower level of ‘lost’ sales (broken sizes, out of stocks, etc.) was enough to generate +5% to +10% comp store sales versus LY just with this strategic decision alone.
• ANF was one of the few retailers that reported merchandise margin declines in FY 2009.  Essentially, every one of the company’s peers was reporting record merchandise margins last year via an advantageous sourcing environment and well controlled inventory levels.  Not ANF.  That’s what makes the current merchandise margin declines even more concerning.  It’s possible that Forever 21 has forced ANF to permanently lower its merchandise margin levels. 

Look at the chart below to see how dramatic the company’s GPM% has fallen over the past 2+ years at a time when others are at record levels.

• We continue to believe Gilly Hicks was one of the worst chain launches in the last decade.  We estimate that the chain has generated only $186 sales per gross square foot for the trailing 4 quarters through Q2 2010.  Given the high quality real estate venues, $186 sales per foot is an embarrassment.  Mr. Jefferies can get excited all he wants about the large positive comps.  But, he’s not being honest about the context of how dismal the chain’s sales were a year ago. 

So, why do the sell-side analysts not hold Mr. Jefferies accountable and ask more probing questions on the quarterly conference call?  While Mr. Jefferies and most CEOs have not fully grasped this notion, the analysts NEED Mr. Jefferies.  The analysts that follow the company need Mr. Jefferies and the company to provide them ‘access’ so that they can invite buy-side clients to management meetings and road shows.  That’s how the sell-side analysts implicitly get paid, not through the ‘regurgitative’ nature of their research that adds no value, but via their ability to get buy-side investors in front of management teams.

That’s why investors are stuck with a process that allows management teams such as ANF to set the agenda for the analysts that follow the company and GET AWAY WITH IT!  Think about it.  ANF management can deliver a +5% comp in Q2 2010 and convince the sell-side analysts that they’re doing well, all while ignoring the historical context of the company’s performance. 

It’s a never ending cycle.  Analysts need access to the company’s management to implicitly get paid by the buy-side community (via commissions).  Company management teams need the analysts to ignore historical performance and to believe management’s ‘spin’ despite objective analysis that suggests otherwise.        

So, we’re left with Mr. Jefferies patting himself on the back and analysts congratulating him on yesterday’s conference call. 

The fact is that grandpa (Mr. Jefferies) is driving the car and he’s already mowed down a few pedestrians.  He’s a CEO of a fashionable teen retailer that continues to have a tough time adjusting to today’s environment that has dramatically changed with the recent success of Forever 21.  So, instead of the company’s board of directors paying Mr. Jefferies $4 million to not fly the corporate jet, someone on the Board needs to be brave enough to take the keys away from Mr. Jefferies and find a visionary merchant to take ANF to the next level.    

A few months ago we posted a blog entry that discussed the loose lips IR policy at Urban Outfitters (URBN – $31.43) under the previous CFO, John Kyees (click here).

On June 1, 2010, the company announced the hiring of Oona McCullough as the company’s Director of Investor Relations.  The company’s stock price has dropped like a rock since the official departure of Mr. Kyees and the hiring of Ms. McCullough.  Is there a correlation between the sudden lack of directional sales/earnings guidance that we believe was historically provided to the traditional sell-side analysts and the drop in the company’s stock price?

What’s interesting is that we’ve heard through the grapevine that the company has radically changed its IR practices under the new Director of Investor Relations. 

First, the company will no longer provide a sales release prior to the release of quarterly earnings.  Also, the company will limit their quarterly conference calls to only 1 hour and allow the traditional sell-side analysts to ask follow-up questions of management for 15 minutes each following the conference call.

We’ve also been informed that the company will no longer provide “directional” sales and earnings trends intra-quarter to the traditional sell-side analysts as we believe that the company had historically done for many years via the outgoing CFO. 

So, the company appears to have gotten some religion and will now be playing by the rules. 

But, here’s where it gets interesting.  Historically, there were few surprises when the company reported quarterly sales/earnings.  Stock price volatility in response to a sales/earnings release was generally low.  That will likely not be the case today when the company reports earnings after the close.  This time, we’re hearing that the company has not tipped anyone off as to recent sales/earnings trends. 

Get your popcorn ready!  Today’s sales/earnings release at URBN will be much more interesting than at any time over the past 10 years.  Traditional sell-side analysts that follow the company will now actually have to spend time forecasting sales and earnings for the company.

Click the link for our updated EPS model and Data Packet for URBN.