Tiburon Research Group (TRG) is an independent equity research boutique specializing in the retail/consumer industry. Founded in 2002 by industry veterans, we are the premier consultant to institutional investors focused on the retail/consumer space. We work closely with each of our clients and are considered a value-added, trusted partner in their research process. 

Retail Geeks is our online platform designed for a broader audience. Here we focus on big picture industry commentary and what we call the "deconstruction of managerial spin".

Providing Higher Quality Fundamental Analysis

TRG has re-defined the traditional equity research model in the retail/consumer sector:

• Unrivaled Combination of Skill Sets - Our research methodology is built on two distinct areas of expertise: (1) applied forensic accounting and (2) daily store-level primary research. Our rigorous, proprietary analysis of sales/earnings quality enables us to better forecast forward earnings. The depth of work we provide is unmatched and results in a typically contrarian view that is a value-added component of our client’s research process.

• Absolute Independence - Our independence is a critical component of our research. Without ties to investment banking, trading, or company management teams, we are free to publish ‘truly’ unbiased research while avoiding a regurgitation of managerial spin.

• Flexible Coverage - We analyze 60+ North American retailers, but we focus our most diligent research efforts on the 12-15 most probable EPS divergence opportunities.  Typically, these opportunities arise when our 3-12 month EPS outlook materially differs from the consensus EPS estimate.

• Limited Distribution - We limit our distribution to a select group of institutional investors who are seeking the highest quality fundamental research in the retail/consumer sector. Our product is only available by subscription.  We work closely with each of our clients.

Intensive Earnings Quality Analytics

Our forensic accounting yields a much sharper understanding of a company’s earnings quality and subsequent earnings power. We don’t simply plug-in numbers to match management’s EPS guidance. Rather, we diligently seek to understand all components of the Income Statement to more accurately forecast EPS.

When a significant disconnect between forward earnings power and investor sentiment for a particular company is identified, we provide our clients with a clinical and comprehensive assessment of the investment opportunity.  This early, value-added analysis allows investors to either profit  the opportunity or act to mitigate portfolio risk.

Rob Wilson, Founder & President, heads the firm and the quantitative research efforts for TRG. He has a CPA background coupled with 3 years of strategic planning and corporate treasury experience at Restoration Hardware (RSTO) and Gymboree (GYMB). He previously worked at Bank of America and Wachovia where he specialized in the valuation and accounting of primarily fixed-income and currency derivatives. Prior to beginning his career in corporate finance he served 4 years as a US Navy Cryptologist. He is a graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a Bachelor in Science in Business Administration and a Master of Accounting.

Insightful Store-Level Primary Research

On the qualitative side, we are in shopping malls every day, not just once a week or month. This consistency allows us to identify top-line and merchandising margin inflection points and/or operational issues. We generally identify these inflection points well ahead of our peers and prior to disclosure by management.

In addition, many times investors need an unbiased industry expert to assist them in navigating the maze of merchandising ‘spin’ retail management teams and determining what is actually happening on the front lines.  We assist investors in that role and occasionally visit malls with our clients to help them understand a retailer’s merchandising strategy and operational acumen/flaws.

Leah Vermulen, Senior Vice President, heads our store-level primary research and has an extensive background in store operations, merchandising and fashion. Her professional experience prior to TRG included 6 years of store management at retailers Nordstrom (JWN) and Anthropologie (URBN). Leah is the primary contributor to our weekly publication called The Shopping Cart. Leah is a graduate of Wright State University in Dayton, OH with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration and Art History.