MCD’s Thompson Dealt a Bad Hand. EPS Expectations for FY 2013 Too High.

We actually feel bad for Don Thompson, the newly minted CEO of McDonald’s (MCD – $92.26). The skeptic in us believes ex-CEO Jim Skinner saw how this movie was unfolding and decided to exit prior to the chain’s troubles tarnishing his tremendously successful 8-year track record as CEO of the company.

This week, we’re expecting the company to continue its recent downward spiral. Not only are forecasting a modest EPS ‘miss’ in Q2 2012, but, in Q1 2013, MCD laps an impressive Q1 2012. Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 were arguably the company’s most impressive consecutive top-line quarters since 1H 2004.

In addition, it’s worth noting that MCD will lap these two particularly impressive quarters minus the incremental marketing spend versus last year (Olympics) that seemingly did nothing for the brand in Q3 2012.

This could get ugly.