September 14, 2012
Monthly Census Bureau Sales Data Analysis

Census Bureau Retail Sales Data Analysis:
August 2012

Reminder: We like to look at the U.S. Census Bureau/Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See attached.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +3.2% year-over-year sales improvement in August 2012 versus LY. This represents a deceleration versus the +4.0% growth rate in July 2012.

That said, this particular metric’s 4-year growth rate accelerated in August 2012 (+10.3%) versus the 4-year growth rate in July 2012 (+9.5%).

The most compelling category specific storylines in August 2012 were:

  • August 2012 represented the 34th consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth for our favorite “mall” measuring stick.

  • Today’s headline suggests that retail sales sequentially improved in August 2012 versus July 2012. But, our favorite measure (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a -0.1% sequential retail sales decline in August 2012 versus July 2012.

  • Almost all categories reported a slower year-over-year growth rate in August 2012 than the YTD rate. Bucking that trend (i.e. stronger year-over-year growth in August 2012 versus YTD) were the following categories: General Merchandise: Department Stores, Clothing & Clothing Accessory Stores, and Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

  • This year’s dramatic sales growth deceleration in the Health & Personal Care Stores category continued in August 2012. In each month from May 2012 through August 2012, the category’s monthly year-over-year growth rates were the lowest since AT LEAST 1998.

  • What’s going on at the Discount Stores? If you subtract General Merchandise: Department Stores from General Merchandise: Department Stores & Discount Stores… you’ll derive a -1.2% year-over-year growth rate in August 2012 versus LY for the Discount Stores sub-segment.

    It gets worse. This analysis would suggest a decelerating growth rate in the Discount Stores sub-segment since January 2012. Very interesting. We’ll follow-up on this subject with a more complete analysis in our weekly Snapshot report that will be published Sunday night.

  • Unlike Building & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers, Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores continues to report relatively strong sales growth versus LY.

See attached for the full report and the data.

Recent monthly “Big Picture — what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012		 +3.9% (+10.4% 2-year)
+4.3% (+10.7% 2-year)
+3.2% (+10.1% 2-year)
+4.0% (+11.3% 2-year)
+3.2% (+10.2% 2-year)
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