Let’s be honest. Management teams are always putting their best foot forward. Press releases and conference calls are filled with Truthiness.

Each week, we’ll challenge “managerial spin” and offer some news and commentary about the retail industry. You are encouraged to provide any feedback to info@RetailGeeks.com.

Click to Open PDF (more…)

Feeling Success in China, H&M Targets Smaller Cities Click to Open PDF
The Gap (GPS) recently suggested that they were losing money in China. That’s not the case with H&M. Conversely, H&M claims that it is making money in EVERY country in which it is located.
Posted: Monday, December 05, 2011
Source: WSJ

Taking Stock of the Battle in Teen Retail Click to Open PDF
In the grocery sector, analysts understand that “fill rates” can materially impact sales. Yet, most analysts in specialty apparel are unaware of the importance of the metric.

For example, AEO has dramatically increased its level of inventory. Fill rates alone could be driving the company’s +5% comp sales performance. Yet, analysts are generally quick to suggest that AEO’s merchandise assortments are “clicking with teens.” We disagree.
Posted: Monday, December 05, 2011
Source: WSJ

Retailers Wary as Chill Sets In Click to Open PDF
It’s become easy to predict the post-Black Friday shopping lull. JOSB and TIF have already issued top-line warnings. That said, the industry has an extremely favorable calendar in December (e.g. extra Saturday, Hanukkah falling later on the calendar, day after Christmas is a Monday).
Posted: Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Source: WWD

Penney’s-Martha Deal Seen as Tired Formula Click to Open PDF
Mr. Johnson better step-up his game. It appears that no one likes the Martha Stewart deal other than Mr. Johnson himself. Also, some are beginning to question the lack of merchandising prowess of his initial hires.
Posted: Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Source: WWD

Specialty Chains Seen Slashing Store Counts Click to Open PDF
The bad news continues for Class B, C malls.
Posted: Friday, December 09, 2011
Source: WWD

Social media is fast becoming the most effective approach to boost brand awareness, understand the customer, get feedback, as well as direct traffic to a company’s web site and/or stores.

We like to track the Facebook activities and monthly fan base growth for the retailers and brands that we follow (and many others). Click here to see our compilation of monthly Facebook ‘fan’ numbers for November 2011 (‘fan’ stats as of 11.30.2011).

Now for this month’s highlights.

It is worth noting that out of the 188 retail chains/brands covered in this survey, the following were the largest percentage gainers of ‘fans’ in November 2011 versus the prior month:

Naturally, most of the above have a small base. Therefore, let’s look at the largest percentage gainers of ‘fans’ in November 2011 versus the prior month for brands with greater than 1.0 million ‘fans.’

Conversely, It is worth noting that out of the 188 retail chains/brands covered in this survey, the following were the lowest percentage gainers of ‘fans’ in November 2011 versus the prior month:

Additional Notes:

Coca Cola (KO) had the largest number of ‘fans’ at the end of November 2011 with 36.2 million followed by Starbucks (SBUX) at 26.2 million.

Wal-Mart (WMT) seems to have really embraced social media over the past 12-18 months.

Why would Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) have a larger ‘fan’ following than Urban Outfitters (URBN)? Why would Cost Plus (CPWM) have a larger ‘fan’ following than Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Pier 1 (PIR)? Mind boggling.

Let’s be honest. Management teams are always putting their best foot forward. Press releases and conference calls are filled with Truthiness.

Each week, we’ll challenge “managerial spin” and offer some news and commentary about the retail industry. You are encouraged to provide any feedback to info@RetailGeeks.com.

Click to Open PDF (more…)

Black Friday Weekend Sets New Highs Click to Open PDF
This is a must read every Black Friday weekend. An extremely comprehensive review of the weekend’s sales with comments from the CEO’s of many retailers.
Posted: Sunday, November 27, 2011
Source: WWD

Cyber Monday Sees Record Shopping Click to Open PDF
Many are beginning to suggest that Cyber Monday is becoming diluted. Again, an extremely comprehensive review of the day’s sales.
Posted: Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Source: WWD

Coach to List on Hong Kong Exchange Click to Open PDF
COH becomes the first American company to list on the HK Stock Exchange. What’s interesting is that the trend has been to unwind dual listings, which can be expensive and time consuming (see London Stock Exchange).
Posted: Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Source: WWD

Aggressive Discounters Notch Wins Click to Open PDF
This week, GPS, JCP, KSS, and TGT reported disappointing top-line results for November 2011. We’re betting that payroll de-leveraged over the holiday weekend as well.
Posted: Friday, December 02, 2011
Source: WSJ

Doubts Linger Despite November Gains Click to Open PDF
Generally, sell-side analysts expect a lull between Black Friday and Christmas. But, they act as if this phenomenon is new. The importance of Black Friday and the drop-off until Christmas began gaining steam 7-8 years ago. Also, don’t believe the “northeast corridor” spending pull-back thesis being touted by many sell-side analysts today. That particular excuse by TIF this week was likely a red herring.
Posted: Friday, December 02, 2011
Source: WSJ