Let’s be honest. Management teams are always putting their best foot forward. Press releases and conference calls are filled with Truthiness.

Each week, we’ll challenge “managerial spin” and offer some news and commentary about the retail industry. You are encouraged to provide any feedback to info@RetailGeeks.com.

Click to Open PDF (more…)

ShopperTrak: Dec 26 Traffic Could Rise 60% Click to Open PDF
There are no built-in excuses in fiscal December this year. Retailers have an extremely favorable calendar versus LY.
Posted: Monday, November 21, 2011
Source: WWD

Promotions Galore Seen as Black Friday Looms Click to Open PDF
Earlier openings have the potential to spur sales. But, will profits disappoint?
Posted: Monday, November 21, 2011
Source: WWD

Price, Premium Effect Lift Denim’s Profile Click to Open PDF
Denim has rebounded this year, likely via the need for replenishment. But, what’s interesting is that many are expecting on maintain pricing in 2012 as sourcing costs decline. We’re not so certain.
Posted: Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Source: WWD

Goldman: Sell Options in Retail Stocks Click to Open PDF
While November is typically a volatile month for retail stocks, December is one of the lowest.
Posted: Friday, November 25, 2011
Source: WSJ

Earlier Black Friday Openings Draw Crowds Click to Open PDF
The earlier openings worked. We predict 6:00pm Thanksgiving openings next year.
Posted: Saturday, November 26, 2011
Source: WSJ

Let’s be honest. Management teams are always putting their best foot forward. Press releases and conference calls are filled with Truthiness.

Each week, we’ll challenge “managerial spin” and offer some news and commentary about the retail industry. You are encouraged to provide any feedback to info@RetailGeeks.com.

Click to Open PDF (more…)

Mexico Introduces Its Own Version of ‘Black Friday’ Style Shopping Blitz Click to Open PDF
Mexicans are now joining the Black Friday party. They’re calling it “El Buen Fin.” The government has even gotten involved.
Posted: Friday, November 18, 2011
Source: WSJ

Wanted: Chief, E-Commerce Click to Open PDF
Web chiefs are in high demand. Recruiters say the “dream person” comes from Google.
Posted: Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Source: WSJ

Consumer Behavior: The Psychology of Now Click to Open PDF
According to one consultant, the new branding rule is to NOT have a branding strategy, but to “have a social voice, and that’s very different.” Another suggests that “really smart retailers” are “trying to figure out where their customers are headed and how they can guide that journey.” A wonderful read.
Posted: Monday, November 14, 2011
Source: WWD

Retail CEO’s Priorities: Online, More Exclusives Click to Open PDF
Retail CEO’s at the WWD CEO Summit suggested that their single highest priority is the “increased use of e-commerce.” Interestingly, some CEO’s admitted that the “control had started to shift from brands to the consumer.”

Finally, one CEO suggested that they were making sure that a retailer offers the “right brands and value” and that this is “much more crucial than adding low-cost opening price points.”
Posted: Monday, November 14, 2011
Source: WWD

Amazon ‘Primes’ Pump for Loyalty Click to Open PDF
AMZN continues to add services to its Prime loyalty offering. Clearly, this comes at a cost.
Posted: Monday, November 14, 2011
Source: WSJ

Reminder: We like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See Full Report Here

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +6.0% year-over-year sales improvement in October 2011 versus LY. This represents a modest acceleration versus the +5.8% growth in September 2011.

The most compelling category specific storylines in October 2011 were:

October 2011 represented the 24th consecutive month of positive year-over-year gorwth for our favoirte mall measuring stick.

Electronics & Appliance Stores reported strong +3.5% year-over-year growth in October 2011 versus LY. This followed a disappointing -0.9% decline in September 2011.

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores reported a jaw dropping +9.1% year-over-year growth rate in October 2011 versus LY. This represents the category’s strongest year-over-year growth rate since at least 1998.

Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores again reported impressive year-over-year growth in October 2011 (+3.4% in October 2011 followed +3.4% in September 2011). That said, the category remains the worst performing category versus calendar 2007 (-17.8% in October 2011 versus October 2007). Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers are down -9.8% over the same timeframe.

Food Services & Drinking Places continued to report impressive year-over-year sales growth in October 2011 versus LY (+6.7%). The category has now reported 13 consecutive months of year-over-year growth that is greater than +4.0%.

Monthly “Big Picture – what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results for the trailing 12 months:

November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011

+5.8% (+6.2% 2-year) +4.9% (+7.7% 2-year) +5.2% (+7.5% 2-year) +5.2% (+8.5% 2-year) +5.3% (+10.4% 2-year) +6.0% (+10.5% 2-year) +6.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +6.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +6.6% (+11.1% 2-year) +5.9% (+10.9% 2-year) +5.8% (+10.9% 2-year) +6.0% (+11.3% 2-year)