Reminder: We like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. This month’s report delayed due to travel schedule. See Full Report Here

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +5.6% year-over-year sales improvement in August 2011. This represents a sharp deceleration versus the +6.6% growth in July 2011.

The most compelling category specific storylines in August 2011 were:

Most categories reported lower year-over-year growth in August 2011 versus July 2011. Bucking this trend (i.e. stronger sales growth in August 2011 versus July 2011) were Electronics & Appliance Stores and Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores.

Look for materially weaker top-line results at Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers going forward. Beginning in September 2011, the category will begin to lap positive 2-year comps (e.g. +3.4% in September 2010 versus -5.0% in August 2010).

Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores are down -20.7% over the past 4 years (i.e. August 2011 versus August 2007)… by far the worst performing category over that timeframe. Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers are down -13.0% over the same timeframe.

Prior to August 2011, Food Services & Drinking Places had reported 12 consecutive months of year-over-year growth that was greater than +4.0%. The category’s year-over-year growth rate decelerated to +3.9% in August 2011.

Monthly “Big Picture – what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results for the trailing 12 months:

August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010

+5.6% (+10.6% 2-year) +6.6% (+11.0% 2-year) +6.0% (+10.7% 2-year) +6.2% (+10.3% 2-year) +6.0% (+10.5% 2-year) +5.3% (+10.4% 2-year) +5.2% (+8.5% 2-year) +5.2% (+7.5% 2-year) +4.9% (+7.7% 2-year) +5.8% (+6.2% 2-year) +5.0% (+4.7% 2-year) +4.8% (+3.3% 2-year) +4.8% (+1.2% 2-year) +4.2% (-0.8% 2-year)

Each month, we provide our clients an early analysis of sales disclosures on sales release Thursday. Below, are a few bigger picture thoughts that we published earlier this morning prior to the opening bell.

Impact of Hurricane Irene on Retail

Generally, comp sales results in August 2011 were boosted in the discount/grocery sector by Hurricane Irene. Conversely, comp sales results in the apparel sector during fiscal August 2011 were negatively impacted by -100 to -200 Bps by Hurricane Irene. A few retailers suggested that sales accelerated in the days following the Hurricane Irene related store closures. (more…)