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November 2010
Weekly Top 5 – Five Articles Worth Reading
Brands Make Splash With Pop Ups
Source: WWD
The availability of real estate has made this an attractive option for brands/chains that want to test the waters. But, online brands are now embracing the strategy as well.
Innerwear Firms Battle Rising Overhead Costs
Source: WWD
Ok, we’re as tired about the rising cost issue as you are. But, check out the quote near the end of the article discussing the increasing demand for chargeback and markdown money from retailers on a quarterly basis. Very interesting.
H&M, Kohl’s Among Leaders in Preference Study
Source: WWD
According to this survey, Ann Taylor Loft ranks 16th of 19 specialty apparel retailers. Yikes! Ann Taylor Loft may be the only specialty apparel retailer struggling in early-November. CEO Kay Krill did not mention the chain as producing positive comp store sales thus far in November 2010 on this week’s quarterly earnings conference call. Not good.
Chambers Apologizes for Bleak Cisco Forecast
Source: WSJ
Many retailers we follow in the retail space are very savvy when it comes to their choice of words when discussing results/strategy with the Street. But an equal percentage are as clueless as Mr. Chambers at CSCO. Just because you’re a CEO does not mean that you’re a savvy communicator with the Street that can appropriately and effectively moderate the volatility of your stock price.
Retailers Suddenly Bullish About Holiday
Source: WWD
Even Sears (SHLD – $) is squawking about how strong sales are in November 2010. Let’s face it, sales have been strong now for 4-5 weeks (last 2 weeks of October and the first 2-3 weeks of November). The problem is that strong sales in early-November is something of an anomaly when looking at sales trends over the past decade. But, sales trends on Black Friday weekend have generally been strong over that same timeframe. The fact is that Black Friday is the driver of November’s top-line. It’ll be interesting to see if the success of the past 4-5 week carries over into Black Friday. Because, if not, there’s a major sell-off brewing for retail stocks.
Weekly Top 5 – Five Articles Worth Reading
Supreme Court Hears Costco Copyright Case
Source: WWD
Do foreign manufacturers have the right to control the distribution and resale of its products? This is an especially interesting case that has made its way to the Supreme Court.
Sourcing Adapts to Soaring Costs
Source: WWD
A sourcing agent suggests that retailers stop treating vendors like “slave constituents.” VFC suggests that moving production from “country to country” may not lower costs. On the other hand, GES is moving a large percentage of its sourcing outside of China and taking more fabric positions in order to secure its supply.
Lending for Some Restaurant Operators Still Gridlocked
Source: WSJ
Unless you’re a large franchisee, good luck getting lenders to finance growth.
Greater Bulk Doesn’t Help Hedge Funds
Source: WSJ
$750 million appears to be the size in which hedge funds derive little marginal benefit from increased size.
Starbucks to Open China Coffee Farm, Securing Global Supply
Source: WSJ
A +50% increase in the commodity has forced SBUX to seek other sources of supply.
Weekly Top 5 – Five Articles Worth Reading
On Sale: Put Protection on Retailers
Source: WSJ
Bears are so worried about takeovers, put protection has become relatively cheap.
WWD CEO Summit: Macy’s Focuses on Customer Service
Source: WWD
We’re not complete believers in the My Macy’s hype. The company has a pretty low bar this year to comp against. But, it is interesting reading that the company plans for 5 million catalogs to be circulated with 30,000 different versions. If that’s not a typo, that’s pretty amazing and indicative of the ‘versioning’ success that began a few years ago at WSM.
Inventory a Worry Amid Weak Oct. Comps
Source: WWD
Yes, inventory is a concern as orders were placed when retailers were feeling much better about a potential recovery (Q1 2010). But, we always get a kick out of a sell-side analyst that suggests sales are weak in part due to a “lack of fashion newness.” That’s an old standby for analysts that lack a better storyline for top-line weakness.
Unable to Stretch Further, Apparel Makers Raise Prices
Source: WSJ
Price increases at the consumer level are on the way. Gosh, even polyester is seeing increases of +20% to +25% versus LY.
Food Sellers Grit Teeth, Raise Prices
Source: WSJ
It’s not just apparel. Inflation concerns grocers, restaurants as well.
