Highlights
Reminder: We like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor. See link.
Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +0.7% year-over-year sales improvement in October 2009, dramatically improved versus the -0.6% decline in September 2009 and the -2.3% decline in August 2009.
Despite the year-over-year improvement in October 2009, 2-year run rates were flat in October 2009 versus September 2009. 2-year run rates are not improving.
Monthly “big picture” year-over-year results in calendar 2009:
| January 2009 | -1.2% (+2.0% 2-year) |
| February 2009 | +0.1% (+2.6% 2-year) |
| March 2009 | -1.6% (+0.8% 2-year) |
| April 2009 | -2.9% (+1.3% 2-year) |
| May 2009 | -3.4% (+0.5% 2-year) |
| June 2009 | -3.4% (+0.8% 2-year) |
| July 2009 | -4.0% (-0.1% 2-year) |
| August 2009 | -2.3% (+0.7% 2-year) |
| September 2009 | -0.6% (+0.6% 2-year) |
| October 2009 | +0.7% (+0.6% 2-year) |
July 2009’s year-over-year decline represented the largest decline this decade. But, sales materially improved in August 2009 – October 2009 relative to July 2009.
The following categories reported worse year-over-year results in October 2009 versus September 2009:
* Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores (-7.6% Oct vs. -7.2% Sep)
* Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers (-15.0% Oct vs. -13.5% Sep)
Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores returned to positive territory after reporting its 5th negative month this year in September 2009. The group went negative for the first time since December 2002 in April 2009. The category’s YTD trend (-0.1%) is the worst this decade.
Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers reported a +2.6% year-over-year sales improvement in October 2009 versus LY. This reverses 22 straight months of year-over-year declines.
2-year run rates in October 2009 were generally equivalent to September 2009. Below are categories that reported a worse 2-year run rate in October 2009 than September 2009:
* Electronics & Appliance Stores (-11.7% Oct vs. -10.7% Sep)
* Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores (-2.6% Oct vs. -1.0% Sep)
* Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers (-17.0% Oct vs. -16.1% Sep)
* Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores (+4.4% Oct vs. +5.3% Sep)
* Gasoline Stations (-14.7% Oct vs. -13.8% Sep)
Below, we show year-over-year results in Q1 2009 (Jan-Mar), Q2 2009 (Apr-Jun), and Q3 2009 (Jul-Sep).
Year-over-year results declined in Q2 2009 (Apr – Jun) versus Q1 2009 (Jan – Mar). But, year-over-year results generally improved in Q3 (Jul – Sep) relative to Q2 (Apr – Jun).
Notice that our favorite measure of overall sales (i.e. Total Retail/Food, ex-Auto, Gas, Building Materials) declined -2.3% versus the prior year in Q3 2009 versus a -3.2% decline in Q2 2009.
The following categories worsened in Q3 2009 (Jul-Sep) versus Q2 2009 (Apr – Jun):
* Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers
* Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores
* Food Services & Drinking Places
* Health & Personal Care Stores
