Archive for October, 2009

So Much for that “Aggressive Shift Toward a More Customer Focused Environment” at PSUN

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

We would have expected customer care to have improved at Pacific Sunwear (PSUN – $6.85) over the past three months since new CEO Gary Schoenfeld boldly suggested that PacSun was “aggressively shifting toward a much more customer focused environment.” 

To the contrary, we have noticed that the selling culture at many PSUN stores has actually deteriorated in recent months.  Store staffing is light, sales associates are uneducated about the merchandise, and many show a general disinterest in assisting customers today. 

 

Q2 2009 Conference Call – 08.20.2009 – Gary Schoenfeld, CEO:

“Historically, I don’t believe that PacSun has enjoyed a great selling culture in our stores, and that the emphasis really has been much more about standards, which are important, but in my opinion can’t come at the expense of putting customers first. I’ve been in a bunch of our stores as of late, and I’ll be in a lot more over this next weekend. And while cultures can’t change completely overnight, I think it’s fair to say we’re aggressively shifting toward a much more customer focused environment, and I believe that this can have an immediate impact on our results.” 

PSUN

We witnessed this PSUN store associate in Fresno, CA ignore customers while he focused on a female customer for well over 30 minutes.

 

EAT Is On the Brink of Disaster

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

Today’s EAT quarterly conference call with analysts may have qualified as one of the worst managerial performances this year.  The vague disavowing of EPS guidance was a head scratcher and the excuse of bloated costs (“investing in our people”) was disingenuous at best.   

Take a look at this exchange on the conference call in which EAT management attempted to answer a question related to EPS guidance.  Did they disavow the original full year EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.30?   

Bryan Elliott  - Raymond James – Analyst

Okay. Last clarification from me, the lack of explicit guidance in the press release.  I think there is some uncertainty out there about what that means.  Not repeating it means it hasn’t changed?  Or, has it been suspended?  And, can you give us sort of a policy statement for future reference?    

Chuck Sonsteby  - Brinker International, Inc. – EVP, CFO

Thanks for giving us that opportunity, Bryan.  I think really what we wanted to move to is we will give an annual guidance at the start of the year and then kind of go from there.  We’ve talked about what we think our upcoming quarters’ marketing strategies will be.  Everybody has got a pretty good idea today of what we talked about on cost of sales.  So we would anticipate that folks would just derive their estimates off of that information.  

Bryan Elliott  - Raymond James – Analyst

So I guess I am still confused then. That means that –?  

Chuck Sonsteby  - Brinker International, Inc. – EVP, CFO

We’re not going to update guidance on a quarterly basis.  

Bryan Elliott  - Raymond James – Analyst

So that means it’s suspended?  Or, the $1.15 to 1.30 is still a good guidance number?  Or, we don’t have any guidance except for the line-by-line information?  

Chuck Sonsteby  - Brinker International, Inc. – EVP, CFO

I would say that the second piece would be –  

Bryan Elliott  - Raymond James – Analyst

Accurate?  Okay.  All right.  Thank you.  

Congratulations Mr. Sonsteby!  Your evasiveness of the question helped take your stock down -11% today!

The 2-Year Comp Sales Run Rates Only Works Until it Doesn’t

Friday, October 16th, 2009

Many are focused on 2-year or 3-year comp store sales run rates.  Today, most retailers reported a 2-year September 2009 comp store sales run rate (September 2008 + September 2009) that was greater than the 2-year run rate in August 2009.  But, the following retailers did not… APP, BKE, GPS, JCP, ROST, SMRT, and SSI (see tables below).   

October 2009 will be more indicative of whether the retail sector will be able to expect a continuation of improving 2-year comp store sales run rates.  Below are the 2-year comp store sales run rates for companies that reported a lower 2-year run rate in September 2009 versus August 2009:

Table

 

September 2009 Commerce Dept Sales Data

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Highlights
Reminder:  We like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change).  Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor.  See link.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a -0.5% year-over-year sales decline in September 2009, dramatically improved versus the -2.3% decline in August 2009 and the -4.0% decline in July 2009. 

Monthly “big picture” year-over-year results in calendar 2009:

January 2009 -1.2%
February 2009 +0.1%
March 2009 -1.6%
April 2009 -2.9%
May 2009 -3.4%
June 2009 -3.4%
July 2009 -4.0%
August 2009 -2.3%
September 2009 -0.5%

July 2009’s year-over-year decline represented the largest decline this decade.  But, sales materially improved in August 2009 and September 2009 relative to July 2009.   

Most categories saw dramatically improved year-over-year results in August and September 2009 versus July 2009.  Yet, Food Services & Drinking Places and Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers reported year-over-year declines in September 2009 that were greater than August 2009. 

Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers reported a much smaller year-over-year improvement in the month versus August 2009 relative to other categories. 

Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores returned to positive territory after reporting its 4th negative month this year in August 2009.  The group went negative for the first time since December 2002 in April 2009.  The category’s YTD trend (-0.1%) is the worst this decade.

Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers reported a -9.3% year-over-year sales decline in September 2009 versus LY, worse than the -3.2% decline in August 2009.  This was the sector’s 22nd straight year-over-year decline.    

Electronics & Appliance Stores reported a -9.7% year-over-year sales decline in September 2009 versus LY, worse than the -9.6% decline YTD through September 2009.     

Below, we show year-over-year results in Q1 2009 (Jan-Mar), Q2 2009 (Apr-Jun), and Q3 2009 (Jul-Sep).   

Year-over-year results declined in Q2 2009 (Apr – Jun) versus Q1 2009 (Jan – Mar).  But, year-over-year results generally improved in Q3 (Jul – Sep) relative to Q2 (Apr – Jun). 

Notice that our favorite measure of overall sales (i.e. Total Retail/Food, ex-Auto, Gas, Building Materials) declined -2.3% versus the prior year in Q3 2009 versus a -3.2% decline in Q2 2009. 

The following categories have worsened in Q3 2009 (Jul-Sep) versus Q2 2009 (Apr – Jun): 
          * Building Material & Garden Equipment Supplies Dealers
          * Food & Beverage Stores: Grocery Stores
          * Food Services & Drinking Places
          * Health & Personal Care Stores

 

Move over Ugg (DECK – $83.54)… Hello TubeFlops?

Monday, October 12th, 2009

Sanuk, the same trendy Southern California beach shoe company that gave men permission to wear their slippers to the bar (by sewing recycled tire tread to the soles), recently launched an unlikely combination for women: socks and flip-flops.  Wearing socks with flip-flops has always been a fashion faux pas, but with the return of leg-warmers and shorter skirt lengths, the rules are changing. 

TubeFlops are fun, functional, and value-conscious.  For $30 a pair, teens can buy a pair in every color!  Available at Zappos.com and Sanuk.com today, we expect retailers will be tripping over themselves to get their hands on this innovative casual shoe. 

Note:  board sport retailers including Pacific Sunwear and Zumiez typically offer Sanuk shoes although we’ve yet to see them in stores. 

Check out the sexy promo video on YouTube!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O32vGGh8Uk